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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -1,7x - -1,9x | -1,8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5,0x - 5,5x | 5,2x |
| Fair Value | ARS 74,75 - ARS 76,66 | ARS 75,71 |
| Upside | -35,8% - -34,2% | -35,0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. | TGNO4 | BASE:TGNO4 |
| YPF Sociedad Anónima | YPFD | BASE:YPFD |
| Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. | 1662 | TSE:1662 |
| Conoil Plc | CONOIL | NGSE:CONOIL |
| TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc | TOTAL | NGSE:TOTAL |
| Sociedad Comercial del Plata S.A. | COME | BASE:COME |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TGNO4 | YPFD | 1662 | CONOIL | TOTAL | COME | ||
| BASE:TGNO4 | BASE:YPFD | TSE:1662 | NGSE:CONOIL | NGSE:TOTAL | BASE:COME | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 74.2% | 135.9% | 34.1% | 24.0% | 44.3% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 156.2% | 46.3% | 48.7% | 21.1% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 498.2% | 155.4% | 12.2% | -27.1% | -34.3% | -158.8% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 4.4% | 4.7% | 11.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -5.9% | 2.9% | 17.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 33.0% | 8.9% | 15.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | -1.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 56.1% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | -2.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.26x | 1.21x | 0.39x | 0.64x | 0.25x | 0.35x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 5.5x | 1.4x | 17.1x | 6.7x | 20.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.0x | 14.2x | 2.4x | 18.0x | 8.2x | -12.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 2.4x | 8.2x | 18.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 0.4x | 2.2x | 52.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -1.7x | -1.8x | -1.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | (15,162) | (15,162) | (15,162) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 25,770 | 27,127 | 28,483 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 176,623 | 176,623 | 176,623 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 202,393 | 203,749 | 205,106 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,119.0 | 3,119.0 | 3,119.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 64.89 | 65.32 | 65.76 | ||||
| FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 64.89 | 65.32 | 65.76 | 116.50 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -44.3% | -43.9% | -43.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TGNO4 | YPFD | 1662 | CONOIL | TOTAL | COME | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,089,157 | 23,290,218 | (63,204) | 197,993 | 251,110 | 186,742 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 275,937 | 1,320,206 | 142,358 | 7,184 | 91,478 | 48,732 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 901 | 2,256,051 | 215,995 | 0 | 0 | 164,543 | |
| (-) Debt | (65,447) | (11,001,792) | 0 | (42,446) | (103,225) | (26,907) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (250,165) | (29,512) | 0 | 0 | (9,744) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,300,547 | 15,614,518 | 265,637 | 162,732 | 239,363 | 363,365 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 439.4 | 393.3 | 255.9 | 694.0 | 339.5 | 3,119.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2,960.00 | 39,700.00 | 1,038.00 | 234.50 | 705.00 | 116.50 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2,960.00 | 39,700.00 | 1,038.00 | 234.50 | 705.00 | 116.50 | |
| Trading Currency | ARS | ARS | JPY | NGN | NGN | ARS | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |