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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 47,7x - 52,7x | 50,2x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 22,3x - 24,7x | 23,5x |
Fair Value | ARS 1.000 - ARS 1.414 | ARS 1.207 |
Upside | -29,0% - 0,3% | -14,4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas | AGRO3 | BOVESPA:AGRO3 |
SLC Agrícola S.A. | SLCE3 | BOVESPA:SLCE3 |
Molinos Juan Semino S.A. | SEMI | BASE:SEMI |
Ledesma Sociedad Anónima Agrícola Industrial | LEDE | BASE:LEDE |
Adecoagro S.A. | ADGO | BASE:ADGO |
Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria | CRES | BASE:CRES |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
AGRO3 | SLCE3 | SEMI | LEDE | ADGO | CRES | ||
BOVESPA:AGRO3 | BOVESPA:SLCE3 | BASE:SEMI | BASE:LEDE | BASE:ADGO | BASE:CRES | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -4.2% | 23.1% | 97.1% | 101.9% | 7.7% | 65.3% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | -2.0% | 227.9% | 145.6% | -1.8% | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | 168.8% | 31.0% | -114.3% | -128.9% | -13.1% | -78.5% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 24.3% | 33.8% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 33.5% | 12.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 21.2% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 13.5% | 31.0% | 15.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 16.4% | 26.8% | 15.1% | 15.2% | 28.1% | 21.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 31.0% | 31.0% | -6.4% | -14.5% | 22.8% | 7.1% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.69x | 2.22x | 1.10x | 1.18x | 1.28x | 3.79x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.7x | 7.2x | -17.4x | -8.1x | 5.6x | 53.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.6x | 8.2x | -14.3x | -6.1x | 13.9x | 58.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -17.4x | 5.6x | 8.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 26.6x | 1102.7x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 47.7x | 50.2x | 52.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 49,350 | 49,350 | 49,350 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,354,681 | 2,478,611 | 2,602,542 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,780,318) | (1,780,318) | (1,780,318) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 574,363 | 698,293 | 822,224 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 607.7 | 607.7 | 607.7 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 945.18 | 1,149.12 | 1,353.06 | ||||
FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 945.18 | 1,149.12 | 1,353.06 | 1,410.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -33.0% | -18.5% | -4.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | AGRO3 | SLCE3 | SEMI | LEDE | ADGO | CRES | |
Enterprise Value | 3,313 | 16,162 | 45,527 | 580,855 | 1,918 | 2,637,142 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 64 | 1,253 | 16,438 | 8,216 | 239 | 512,556 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 3 | 6 | 47 | 5,596 | 0 | 192,441 | |
(-) Debt | (1,339) | (9,214) | (885) | (194,655) | (1,275) | (1,428,767) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (183) | (2) | 0 | (40) | (1,056,548) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,041 | 8,024 | 61,125 | 400,012 | 842 | 856,824 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 99.6 | 440.9 | 2,500.0 | 438.1 | 88.3 | 607.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 20.49 | 18.20 | 24.45 | 913.00 | 9.53 | 1,410.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 20.49 | 18.20 | 24.45 | 913.00 | 12,250.00 | 1,410.00 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | ARS | ARS | ARS | ARS | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |