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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0,2x - 0,3x | 0,2x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0,2x - 0,2x | 0,2x |
| Fair Value | ARS 474,38 - ARS 766,07 | ARS 620,22 |
| Upside | -3,2% - 56,3% | 26,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Pampa Energía S.A. | PAMP | BASE:PAMP |
| Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad Anónima | EDN | BASE:EDN |
| Compañía de Transporte de Energía Eléctrica en Alta Tensión Transener S.A. | TRAN | BASE:TRAN |
| Compania de Electricidad de Tulua S.A. E.S.P. | ELECTULUA | BVC:ELECTULUA |
| Shougang Generación Eléctrica S.A.A. | SHOUGEC1 | BVL:SHOUGEC1 |
| EDESA Holding S.A. | EDSH | BASE:EDSH |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| PAMP | EDN | TRAN | ELECTULUA | SHOUGEC1 | EDSH | |||
| BASE:PAMP | BASE:EDN | BASE:TRAN | BVC:ELECTULUA | BVL:SHOUGEC1 | BASE:EDSH | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.0% | 61.7% | 76.8% | 8.8% | 2.0% | 81.9% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 7.6% | 109.8% | 116.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 107.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.3% | 33.8% | 19.7% | 1.5% | -37.1% | 48.3% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 27.6% | -5.8% | 23.1% | 24.8% | -0.6% | 5.7% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 22.6% | -17.0% | 10.5% | 26.6% | 1.4% | -11.4% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.4% | 2.2% | 30.5% | 24.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.4% | 2.2% | 30.5% | 24.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.92x | 0.84x | 2.57x | 0.83x | -0.14x | 0.23x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.5x | 38.1x | 8.4x | 3.3x | -13.3x | 17.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.26x | 0.81x | 2.86x | 0.98x | 0.21x | 0.04x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | -0.14x | 0.84x | 2.57x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.14x | 0.23x | 0.31x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.23x | 0.24x | 0.25x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 281,097 | 281,097 | 281,097 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 64,588 | 67,988 | 71,387 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (52,567) | (52,567) | (52,567) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 12,021 | 15,421 | 18,820 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 22.9 | 22.9 | 22.9 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 525.23 | 673.75 | 822.27 | |||||
| FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 525.23 | 673.75 | 822.27 | 490.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 7.2% | 37.5% | 67.8% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | PAMP | EDN | TRAN | ELECTULUA | SHOUGEC1 | EDSH | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,648 | 1,720,489 | 874,762 | 139,762 | (20) | 63,782 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,668 | 406,413 | 100,231 | 25,348 | 51 | 2,486 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,020 | 121 | 0 | 1,006 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,094) | (476,362) | (1,158) | (119) | (2) | (33,381) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (21,672) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,233 | 1,650,661 | 973,836 | 165,997 | 29 | 11,215 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,359.6 | 875.7 | 444.7 | 0.3 | 94.0 | 22.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3.11 | 1,885.00 | 2,190.00 | 500,000.00 | 0.31 | 490.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3,650.00 | 1,885.00 | 2,190.00 | 500,000.00 | 0.31 | 490.00 | |
| Trading Currency | ARS | ARS | ARS | COP | PEN | ARS | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |