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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 14,1x - 15,5x | 14,8x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 8,2x - 9,0x | 8,6x |
Fair Value | ARS 44.820 - ARS 51.593 | ARS 48.206 |
Upside | 12,3% - 29,2% | 20,7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | VIST | BASE:VIST |
Crown Point Energy Inc. | CWV | TSXV:CWV |
Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. | TGNO4 | BASE:TGNO4 |
Equinor ASA | EQNR | BASE:EQNR |
TotalEnergies SE | TTE | BASE:TTE |
YPF Sociedad Anónima | YPFD | BASE:YPFD |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
VIST | CWV | TGNO4 | EQNR | TTE | YPFD | ||
BASE:VIST | TSXV:CWV | BASE:TGNO4 | BASE:EQNR | BASE:TTE | BASE:YPFD | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 102.5% | NM- | 74.2% | 22.1% | 9.1% | 135.9% | |
3Y CAGR | 47.3% | NM- | NM- | -5.3% | 2.1% | 156.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 6.1% | -76.2% | 498.2% | -3.6% | -23.1% | 155.4% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 29.0% | -24.0% | 4.4% | 30.4% | 12.7% | 4.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 46.4% | -33.5% | -5.9% | 33.7% | 14.8% | 2.9% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 37.7% | -40.0% | 33.0% | 28.4% | 13.2% | 8.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 34.1% | -31.7% | 56.1% | 28.1% | 12.6% | 8.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.67x | 1.67x | 2.34x | 0.56x | 0.70x | 1.22x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | -22.2x | 3.4x | 1.6x | 3.6x | 5.5x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 10.8x | -5.3x | 4.2x | 2.0x | 5.5x | 14.3x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -5.3x | 4.2x | 10.8x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -12.8x | 13.7x | 73.8x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 14.1x | 14.8x | 15.5x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 1,631,806 | 1,631,806 | 1,631,806 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 22,954,687 | 24,162,829 | 25,370,970 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (7,675,700) | (7,675,700) | (7,675,700) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 15,278,987 | 16,487,129 | 17,695,270 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 393.3 | 393.3 | 393.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 38,846.91 | 41,918.62 | 44,990.32 | ||||
FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 38,846.91 | 41,918.62 | 44,990.32 | 39,925.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -2.7% | 5.0% | 12.7% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | VIST | CWV | TGNO4 | EQNR | TTE | YPFD | |
Enterprise Value | 6,327 | 72 | 1,102,338 | 42,252 | 115,714 | 23,378,713 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 154 | 0 | 275,937 | 24,848 | 29,074 | 1,320,206 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 49 | 0 | 901 | 8,473 | 39,778 | 2,256,051 | |
(-) Debt | (2,674) | (65) | (65,447) | (29,768) | (59,889) | (11,001,792) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (44) | (2,465) | (250,165) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 3,856 | 7 | 1,313,728 | 45,761 | 122,212 | 15,703,013 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 257.5 | 72.9 | 439.4 | 10,599.1 | 5,917.3 | 393.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 14.97 | 0.10 | 2,990.00 | 4.32 | 20.65 | 39,925.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.00 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 19,250.00 | 0.14 | 2,990.00 | 5,550.00 | 26,550.00 | 39,925.00 | |
Trading Currency | ARS | CAD | ARS | ARS | ARS | ARS | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.00 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |