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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 1,7x - 1,9x | 1,8x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 1,8x - 2,0x | 1,9x |
Fair Value | EGP 8,22 - EGP 8,50 | EGP 8,36 |
Upside | -5,6% - -2,4% | -4,0% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Heliopolis Co. for Housing & Development | HELI | CASE:HELI |
Arab Company For Land Reclamation | EALR | CASE:EALR |
Arab Developers Holding | ARAB | CASE:ARAB |
Real Estate Egyptian Consortium S.A.E | AREH | CASE:AREH |
Giza General - Contracting and Real Estate Investment S.A.E | GGCC | CASE:GGCC |
Emaar Misr for Development Company (S.A.E.) | EMFD | CASE:EMFD |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
HELI | EALR | ARAB | AREH | GGCC | EMFD | ||
CASE:HELI | CASE:EALR | CASE:ARAB | CASE:AREH | CASE:GGCC | CASE:EMFD | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 5.9% | NM- | 11.6% | 43.8% | 12.1% | 64.1% | |
3Y CAGR | 90.2% | NM- | 17.1% | 23.9% | 9.8% | 21.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -88.6% | -82.5% | 149.7% | -86.6% | -42.2% | 98.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 61.2% | -1.4% | 6.0% | 22.2% | 11.5% | 35.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 68.1% | 1.8% | 7.6% | 39.1% | 19.3% | 37.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 93.4% | 3.1% | 12.9% | 48.9% | 11.3% | 40.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 90.8% | 2.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 47.3% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 6.98x | 3.72x | 2.78x | 15.78x | 1.02x | 0.75x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.7x | 166.1x | 24.4x | 145.8x | 9.3x | 1.6x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 7.7x | 274.8x | 26.6x | 173.0x | 9.5x | 1.7x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.7x | 24.4x | 166.1x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -0.2x | 0.8x | 2.0x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.7x | 1.8x | 1.9x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 10,997 | 10,997 | 10,997 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 18,523 | 19,498 | 20,473 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 29,966 | 29,966 | 29,966 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 48,489 | 49,464 | 50,439 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 5,446.9 | 5,446.9 | 5,446.9 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 8.90 | 9.08 | 9.26 | ||||
FX Rate: EGP/EGP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.90 | 9.08 | 9.26 | 8.71 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 2.2% | 4.3% | 6.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | HELI | EALR | ARAB | AREH | GGCC | EMFD | |
Enterprise Value | 9,379 | 486 | 4,713 | 344 | 1,059 | 17,477 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,297 | 10 | 208 | 2 | 67 | 35,252 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 4 | 222 | 49 | 185 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (471) | (5) | (2,427) | (0) | (432) | (5,287) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (19) | 0 | (0) | (0) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 13,204 | 495 | 2,697 | 394 | 879 | 47,443 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,335.1 | 5.2 | 13,903.0 | 400.0 | 1,442.7 | 5,446.9 | |
Implied Stock Price | 9.89 | 95.25 | 0.19 | 0.99 | 0.61 | 8.71 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9.89 | 95.25 | 0.19 | 0.99 | 0.61 | 8.71 | |
Trading Currency | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |