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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 3,9x - 4,3x | 4,1x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 2,3x - 2,5x | 2,4x |
Fair Value | EGP 5,70 - EGP 6,30 | EGP 6 |
Upside | 17,7% - 30,1% | 23,9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Talaat Moustafa Group Holding | TMGH | CASE:TMGH |
Heliopolis Co. for Housing & Development | HELI | CASE:HELI |
Emaar Misr for Development Company (S.A.E.) | EMFD | CASE:EMFD |
Egyptian Resorts Company (S.A.E) | EGTS | CASE:EGTS |
Arab Company For Land Reclamation | EALR | CASE:EALR |
Madinet Masr For Housing and Development | MASR | CASE:MASR |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
TMGH | HELI | EMFD | EGTS | EALR | MASR | ||
CASE:TMGH | CASE:HELI | CASE:EMFD | CASE:EGTS | CASE:EALR | CASE:MASR | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 27.3% | 5.9% | 73.1% | NM- | NM- | 24.3% | |
3Y CAGR | 45.9% | 92.8% | 20.9% | NM- | NM- | 99.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 62.0% | -88.6% | 101.4% | 174.8% | -88.3% | -21.2% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 24.5% | 60.6% | 32.5% | -138.3% | -4.6% | 34.5% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 24.4% | 68.0% | 34.2% | -41.5% | 0.9% | 37.7% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 27.6% | 92.7% | 37.6% | -9.8% | 2.0% | 45.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 27.7% | 90.2% | 44.0% | 44.0% | 1.4% | 41.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.20x | 7.08x | 0.84x | 8.55x | 3.90x | 1.29x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.5x | 7.8x | 1.8x | 19.1x | 174.3x | 3.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 11.5x | 7.8x | 1.9x | 19.4x | 288.4x | 3.1x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 1.9x | 11.5x | 288.4x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 1.7x | 6.0x | 10.0x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 3.9x | 4.1x | 4.3x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 3,301 | 3,301 | 3,301 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 12,926 | 13,606 | 14,286 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (28) | (28) | (28) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 12,898 | 13,578 | 14,259 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,135.0 | 2,135.0 | 2,135.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 6.04 | 6.36 | 6.68 | ||||
FX Rate: EGP/EGP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.04 | 6.36 | 6.68 | 4.84 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 24.8% | 31.4% | 38.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | TMGH | HELI | EMFD | EGTS | EALR | MASR | |
Enterprise Value | 145,399 | 9,712 | 19,057 | 8,187 | 500 | 10,361 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 48,933 | 4,297 | 35,252 | 573 | 10 | 3,999 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 11,938 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | |
(-) Debt | (31,596) | (471) | (5,287) | 0 | (5) | (3,900) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (60,898) | 0 | (0) | (76) | 0 | (136) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 113,777 | 13,538 | 49,022 | 8,684 | 510 | 10,333 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,061.2 | 1,335.1 | 5,446.9 | 1,050.0 | 5.2 | 2,135.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 55.20 | 10.14 | 9.00 | 8.27 | 98.01 | 4.84 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 55.20 | 10.14 | 9.00 | 8.27 | 98.01 | 4.84 | |
Trading Currency | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |