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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8,8x - 9,8x | 9,3x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,5x - 6,1x | 5,8x |
Fair Value | EGP 49,10 - EGP 55,92 | EGP 52,51 |
Upside | -10,7% - 1,7% | -4,5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Heliopolis Co. for Housing & Development | HELI | CASE:HELI |
Real Estate Egyptian Consortium S.A.E | AREH | CASE:AREH |
Madinet Masr For Housing and Development | MASR | CASE:MASR |
Egyptian Resorts Company (S.A.E) | EGTS | CASE:EGTS |
Giza General - Contracting and Real Estate Investment S.A.E | GGCC | CASE:GGCC |
Talaat Moustafa Group Holding | TMGH | CASE:TMGH |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
HELI | AREH | MASR | EGTS | GGCC | TMGH | ||
CASE:HELI | CASE:AREH | CASE:MASR | CASE:EGTS | CASE:GGCC | CASE:TMGH | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 5.9% | 43.8% | 24.2% | NM- | 12.1% | 27.8% | |
3Y CAGR | 90.2% | 23.9% | 96.8% | NM- | 9.8% | 46.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -91.8% | -86.6% | -11.8% | 176.9% | -45.0% | 55.7% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 62.3% | 22.2% | 34.4% | -127.1% | 11.7% | 26.6% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 68.1% | 39.1% | 37.7% | -39.4% | 19.3% | 26.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 93.4% | 48.9% | 45.3% | -9.3% | 11.3% | 30.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 85.9% | 10.8% | 41.6% | 44.7% | 9.6% | 31.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 18.11x | 17.56x | 1.07x | 8.26x | 0.82x | 2.91x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 21.1x | 162.3x | 2.6x | 18.5x | 8.5x | 9.3x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 21.2x | 192.6x | 2.6x | 18.8x | 8.7x | 10.2x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.6x | 18.5x | 162.3x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.8x | 8.4x | 11.7x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.8x | 9.3x | 9.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 15,614 | 15,614 | 15,614 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 138,148 | 145,419 | 152,690 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (32,261) | (32,261) | (32,261) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 105,888 | 113,159 | 120,430 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,060.7 | 2,060.7 | 2,060.7 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 51.39 | 54.91 | 58.44 | ||||
FX Rate: EGP/EGP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 51.39 | 54.91 | 58.44 | 55.01 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -6.6% | -0.2% | 6.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | HELI | AREH | MASR | EGTS | GGCC | TMGH | |
Enterprise Value | 18,995 | 382 | 9,359 | 7,914 | 869 | 145,617 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,400 | 2 | 4,545 | 573 | 55 | 50,193 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 306 | 11,889 | |
(-) Debt | (7,431) | (0) | (4,664) | 0 | (379) | (33,963) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (133) | (76) | (0) | (60,380) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 12,964 | 433 | 9,116 | 8,411 | 851 | 113,357 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,335.1 | 400.0 | 2,135.0 | 1,050.0 | 1,442.7 | 2,060.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 9.71 | 1.08 | 4.27 | 8.01 | 0.59 | 55.01 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9.71 | 1.08 | 4.27 | 8.01 | 0.59 | 55.01 | |
Trading Currency | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | EGP | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |