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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 47,6x - 52,7x | 50,1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 12,6x - 13,9x | 13,3x |
| Fair Value | €20,98 - €23,10 | €22,04 |
| Upside | -22,9% - -15,1% | -19,0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Sanrio Company, Ltd. | 8136 | TSE:8136 |
| MINISO Group Holding Limited | 9896 | SEHK:9896 |
| Wuxi Commercial Mansion Grand Orient Co., Ltd. | 600327 | SHSE:600327 |
| Chengdu Fusen Noble-House Industrial Co.,Ltd. | 2818 | SZSE:002818 |
| Fujian Zhangzhou Development Co.,LTD. | 753 | SZSE:000753 |
| Pop Mart International Group Limited | 735 | DB:735 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 8136 | 9896 | 600327 | 2818 | 753 | 735 | ||
| TSE:8136 | SEHK:9896 | SHSE:600327 | SZSE:002818 | SZSE:000753 | DB:735 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 66.1% | 25.9% | -12.2% | -2.2% | -12.9% | 47.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 133.9% | 90.7% | -18.5% | -2.6% | -14.3% | 50.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 87.4% | 12.0% | 4.3% | -5.6% | 16.7% | 198.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.1% | 12.0% | 5.1% | 72.0% | 5.9% | 28.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 28.9% | 20.6% | 5.7% | 71.2% | 3.1% | 24.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 37.4% | 19.6% | 5.4% | 71.8% | 4.2% | 35.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 37.4% | 18.7% | 5.8% | 73.0% | 3.8% | 35.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 9.60x | 2.05x | 0.55x | 4.80x | 2.88x | 22.13x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 25.7x | 11.0x | 9.5x | 6.6x | 75.0x | 62.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 26.9x | 11.4x | 15.2x | 8.7x | 1602.2x | 68.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.6x | 11.0x | 75.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.0x | 36.7x | 123.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 47.6x | 50.1x | 52.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 4,593 | 4,593 | 4,593 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 218,812 | 230,329 | 241,845 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 9,015 | 9,015 | 9,015 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 227,827 | 239,343 | 250,860 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,328.2 | 1,328.2 | 1,328.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 171.54 | 180.21 | 188.88 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/EUR | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 20.54 | 21.58 | 22.62 | 27.20 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -24.5% | -20.7% | -16.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 8136 | 9896 | 600327 | 2818 | 753 | 735 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,391,563 | 36,489 | 1,966 | 6,629 | 9,372 | 292,660 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 118,976 | 7,253 | 571 | 1,600 | 632 | 9,632 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 27,667 | 6,536 | 3,209 | 951 | 657 | 549 | |
| (-) Debt | (45,323) | (9,215) | (1,169) | (14) | (4,597) | (965) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (576) | (45) | (244) | (230) | (641) | (201) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,492,307 | 41,018 | 4,334 | 8,937 | 5,423 | 301,675 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 237.3 | 1,205.1 | 873.8 | 748.5 | 991.5 | 1,328.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 6,288.00 | 34.04 | 4.96 | 11.94 | 5.47 | 227.14 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 8.35 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 6,288.00 | 37.05 | 4.96 | 11.94 | 5.47 | 27.20 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 8.35 | |