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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7,3x - 8,0x | 7,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6,2x - 6,9x | 6,5x |
| Fair Value | €6,31 - €7,29 | €6,80 |
| Upside | 14,8% - 32,5% | 23,7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| ENEOS Holdings, Inc. | 5020 | TSE:5020 |
| Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited | 500104 | BSE:500104 |
| Indian Oil Corporation Limited | 530965 | BSE:530965 |
| TotalEnergies SE | TTFN.F | OTCPK:TTFN.F |
| PetroChina Company Limited | 857 | SEHK:857 |
| Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. | I7B | DB:I7B |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 5020 | 500104 | 530965 | TTFN.F | 857 | I7B | ||
| TSE:5020 | BSE:500104 | BSE:530965 | OTCPK:TTFN.F | SEHK:857 | DB:I7B | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 16.2% | 21.1% | 13.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 21.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -14.5% | 16.0% | -8.8% | 0.2% | 7.3% | -21.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -14.7% | -32.5% | -53.1% | -14.4% | -2.8% | -41.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.0% | 3.4% | 7.2% | 19.8% | 14.8% | 4.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.3% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 20.6% | 16.3% | 5.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 19.5% | 16.3% | 2.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 19.4% | 16.7% | 2.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.27x | 0.31x | 0.39x | 0.69x | 0.53x | 0.19x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 8.0x | 8.2x | 3.6x | 3.2x | 6.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.5x | 12.5x | 15.3x | 5.5x | 6.1x | 11.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.2x | 5.2x | 8.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 5.6x | 21.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.3x | 7.7x | 8.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 267,261 | 267,261 | 267,261 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,944,825 | 2,047,184 | 2,149,543 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (623,256) | (623,256) | (623,256) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,321,569 | 1,423,928 | 1,526,287 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,224.6 | 1,224.6 | 1,224.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,079.15 | 1,162.73 | 1,246.32 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 172.8 | 172.8 | 172.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.25 | 6.73 | 7.21 | 5.50 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 13.6% | 22.4% | 31.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 5020 | 500104 | 530965 | TTFN.F | 857 | I7B | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,288,232 | 1,357,864 | 2,945,105 | 126,199 | 1,807,082 | 1,786,884 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 846,563 | 35,063 | 136,739 | 29,074 | 316,530 | 165,762 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 992,136 | 237,939 | 568,496 | 39,778 | 300,860 | 424,686 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,676,027) | (705,582) | (1,522,706) | (59,889) | (364,748) | (1,196,374) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (369,903) | 0 | (45,373) | (2,465) | (199,413) | (17,330) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,081,001 | 925,284 | 2,082,260 | 132,697 | 1,860,311 | 1,163,628 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,690.4 | 2,127.8 | 13,771.6 | 2,207.2 | 273,222.9 | 1,224.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 773.50 | 434.85 | 151.20 | 60.12 | 6.81 | 950.18 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 172.76 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 773.50 | 434.85 | 151.20 | 60.12 | 7.46 | 5.50 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | INR | INR | USD | HKD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 172.76 | |