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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6,4x - 7,1x | 6,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,3x - 5,8x | 5,5x |
| Fair Value | €1,06 - €1,21 | €1,14 |
| Upside | 16,7% - 32,8% | 24,7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| CTS International Logistics Corporation Limited | 603128 | SHSE:603128 |
| Sinotrans Limited | 598 | SEHK:598 |
| Dimerco Express Corporation | 5609 | TPEX:5609 |
| Bondex Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. | 603836 | SHSE:603836 |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | EXPD | NYSE:EXPD |
| KLN Logistics Group Limited | KYL | DB:KYL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 603128 | 598 | 5609 | 603836 | EXPD | KYL | ||
| SHSE:603128 | SEHK:598 | TPEX:5609 | SHSE:603836 | NYSE:EXPD | DB:KYL | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.0% | 5.9% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 6.2% | -0.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -19.6% | -0.4% | -27.1% | -43.8% | -17.5% | -18.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -8.3% | -4.9% | 2.9% | 17.0% | 27.6% | 11.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 11.0% | 7.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 10.8% | 6.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 10.4% | 6.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 10.4% | 6.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.41x | 0.27x | 0.20x | 0.21x | 1.37x | 0.35x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.3x | 7.2x | 5.5x | 18.0x | 13.2x | 5.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.7x | 11.8x | 5.7x | 22.0x | 13.9x | 7.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.5x | 12.3x | 18.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.6x | 5.9x | 9.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 6.7x | 7.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 3,471 | 3,471 | 3,471 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 22,193 | 23,361 | 24,529 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (5,339) | (5,339) | (5,339) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 16,853 | 18,021 | 19,189 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,807.4 | 1,807.4 | 1,807.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.32 | 9.97 | 10.62 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/EUR | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.02 | 1.09 | 1.16 | 0.91 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 11.8% | 19.6% | 27.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 603128 | 598 | 5609 | 603836 | EXPD | KYL | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,258 | 32,816 | 5,924 | 2,180 | 15,477 | 20,409 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,858 | 11,368 | 5,139 | 1,367 | 1,156 | 6,578 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 748 | 11,206 | 284 | 60 | 0 | 1,898 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,458) | (11,497) | (506) | (747) | (587) | (11,492) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (120) | (2,543) | (115) | (36) | (2) | (2,323) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 8,286 | 41,349 | 10,725 | 2,823 | 16,044 | 15,070 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,309.0 | 10,024.1 | 140.7 | 201.9 | 135.1 | 1,807.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 6.33 | 4.12 | 76.20 | 13.98 | 118.73 | 8.34 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.16 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 6.33 | 4.51 | 76.20 | 13.98 | 118.73 | 0.91 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | HKD | TWD | CNY | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.16 | |