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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 13,8x - 15,2x | 14,5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 10,2x - 11,3x | 10,8x |
Fair Value | €50,42 - €57,38 | €53,90 |
Upside | 17,3% - 33,5% | 25,4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | MCRI | NasdaqGS:MCRI |
Choice Hotels International, Inc. | CHH | NYSE:CHH |
Marriott International, Inc. | MAR | NasdaqGS:MAR |
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | RRR | NasdaqGS:RRR |
Travel + Leisure Co. | TNL | NYSE:TNL |
Las Vegas Sands Corp. | LCR | DB:LCR |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
MCRI | CHH | MAR | RRR | TNL | LCR | ||
NasdaqGS:MCRI | NYSE:CHH | NasdaqGS:MAR | NasdaqGS:RRR | NYSE:TNL | DB:LCR | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 25.9% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 9.3% | -1.8% | -3.4% | |
3Y CAGR | 9.0% | 4.3% | 27.4% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 114.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 9.1% | 14.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.5% | -3.1% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 31.1% | 62.7% | 60.5% | 39.7% | 21.5% | 17.4% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 32.6% | 63.3% | 67.8% | 41.9% | 22.9% | 34.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 33.0% | 66.8% | 64.3% | 39.3% | 22.4% | 33.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 33.9% | 66.8% | 64.9% | 39.3% | 22.9% | 33.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.45x | 10.10x | 13.73x | 3.38x | 2.44x | 4.19x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.2x | 15.1x | 21.2x | 8.6x | 10.7x | 12.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 14.3x | 16.6x | 23.3x | 11.5x | 12.3x | 19.3x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.6x | 10.7x | 21.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.1x | 69.5x | 154.1x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.8x | 14.5x | 15.2x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 3,933 | 3,933 | 3,933 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 54,177 | 57,028 | 59,879 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (12,661) | (12,661) | (12,661) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 41,516 | 44,367 | 47,218 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 686.4 | 686.4 | 686.4 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 60.48 | 64.63 | 68.79 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 51.48 | 55.02 | 58.55 | 42.97 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 19.8% | 28.0% | 36.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | MCRI | CHH | MAR | RRR | TNL | LCR | |
Enterprise Value | 1,845 | 8,056 | 91,475 | 6,592 | 9,563 | 47,313 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 72 | 40 | 523 | 151 | 212 | 3,450 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 122 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (14) | (1,987) | (15,851) | (3,406) | (5,669) | (15,820) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (123) | 1 | (291) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,903 | 6,231 | 76,447 | 3,214 | 4,107 | 34,652 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 18.2 | 46.1 | 273.9 | 59.3 | 65.0 | 686.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 104.34 | 135.29 | 279.11 | 54.20 | 63.18 | 50.48 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 104.34 | 135.29 | 279.11 | 54.20 | 63.18 | 42.97 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 |