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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 20,9x - 23,1x | 22,0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 8,9x - 9,8x | 9,4x |
| Fair Value | €0,28 - €0,36 | €0,32 |
| Upside | -8,9% - 15,3% | 3,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Oji Holdings Corporation | 3861 | TSE:3861 |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited | 2689 | SEHK:2689 |
| Greenheart Group Limited | 94 | SEHK:94 |
| Packaging Corporation of America | PKG | NYSE:PKG |
| International Paper Company | IP | NYSE:IP |
| Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Limited | LMP | DB:LMP |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 3861 | 2689 | 94 | PKG | IP | LMP | ||
| TSE:3861 | SEHK:2689 | SEHK:94 | NYSE:PKG | NYSE:IP | DB:LMP | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.1% | -5.5% | NM- | 2.9% | -5.8% | -16.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -4.6% | -18.7% | NM- | -0.7% | -10.1% | -24.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.5% | 61.3% | -136.1% | 17.2% | 22.8% | 4.3% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 10.2% | 11.7% | -16.5% | 20.9% | 13.0% | 7.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.1% | 3.5% | -33.0% | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.8% | 10.2% | -136.8% | 20.0% | 11.0% | 5.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NA | 10.6% | -136.8% | 21.0% | 11.4% | 6.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.77x | 1.27x | 0.12x | 2.24x | 1.57x | 1.31x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.3x | 12.0x | -0.1x | 10.7x | 13.8x | 21.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 25.2x | 25.5x | -0.1x | 15.2x | 31.0x | 26.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -0.1x | 10.7x | 13.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.0x | 21.5x | 42.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 20.9x | 22.0x | 23.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,547 | 1,547 | 1,547 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 32,368 | 34,071 | 35,775 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (20,131) | (20,131) | (20,131) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 12,237 | 13,941 | 15,644 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,149.2 | 5,149.2 | 5,149.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.38 | 2.71 | 3.04 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/EUR | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.31 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -15.9% | -4.1% | 7.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3861 | 2689 | 94 | PKG | IP | LMP | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,432,729 | 81,056 | 8 | 19,409 | 34,612 | 34,674 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 69,104 | 11,861 | 20 | 880 | 1,135 | 1,657 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 188,300 | 183 | 1 | 76 | 0 | 204 | |
| (-) Debt | (948,666) | (70,135) | (438) | (2,811) | (10,641) | (21,983) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (29,763) | (492) | 511 | 0 | 0 | (9) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 711,704 | 22,472 | 102 | 17,554 | 25,106 | 14,543 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 917.4 | 4,692.2 | 1,855.0 | 89.4 | 528.0 | 5,149.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 775.80 | 4.79 | 0.06 | 196.43 | 47.55 | 2.82 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.11 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 775.80 | 5.23 | 0.06 | 196.43 | 47.55 | 0.31 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | HKD | HKD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.11 | |