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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | -6,1x - -6,7x | -6,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | -24,3x - -26,9x | -25,6x |
| Fair Value | €4,85 - €5,45 | €5,15 |
| Upside | 18,1% - 32,7% | 25,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| XPeng Inc. | XPEV | NYSE:XPEV |
| Li Auto Inc. | LI | NasdaqGS:LI |
| ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding Limited | ZK | NYSE:ZK |
| BYD Company Limited | BYDD.Y | OTCPK:BYDD.Y |
| Chijet Motor Company, Inc. | CJET | NasdaqCM:CJET |
| NIO Inc. | N3I | DB:N3I |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| XPEV | LI | ZK | BYDD.Y | CJET | N3I | ||
| NYSE:XPEV | NasdaqGS:LI | NYSE:ZK | OTCPK:BYDD.Y | NasdaqCM:CJET | DB:N3I | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | 49.9% | NM- | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | 75.0% | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 54.1% | 35.2% | 26.4% | 41.9% | 36.8% | 15.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -40.1% | -0.1% | -17.4% | 11.9% | -473.6% | -26.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -29.1% | 7.4% | -14.6% | 12.7% | -567.6% | -34.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -11.2% | 7.0% | -7.3% | 14.0% | -492.2% | -24.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -7.3% | 7.8% | -6.6% | 14.2% | -492.2% | -24.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.01x | 0.62x | 0.79x | 1.02x | 58.74x | 1.42x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -27.7x | 8.0x | -12.1x | 7.2x | -11.9x | -5.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -17.2x | 11.5x | -10.0x | 17.1x | -7.1x | -4.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -27.7x | -11.9x | 8.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -191.8x | -9.6x | -3.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | -6.1x | -6.4x | -6.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | (16,398) | (16,398) | (16,398) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 99,806 | 105,059 | 110,312 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (15,434) | (15,434) | (15,434) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 84,373 | 89,626 | 94,879 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,242.5 | 2,242.5 | 2,242.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 37.62 | 39.97 | 42.31 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/EUR | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.51 | 4.79 | 5.07 | 4.11 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 9.7% | 16.6% | 23.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | XPEV | LI | ZK | BYDD.Y | CJET | N3I | |
| Enterprise Value | 100,689 | 89,796 | 60,422 | 805,488 | 403 | 92,324 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 33,629 | 110,678 | 7,496 | 153,391 | 4 | 19,722 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 7,317 | 822 | 816 | 30,792 | 3 | 2,879 | |
| (-) Debt | (17,701) | (16,356) | (18,312) | (41,128) | (364) | (30,354) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (502) | 1,306 | (12,800) | (34) | (7,681) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 123,934 | 184,439 | 51,728 | 935,742 | 13 | 76,891 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 952.1 | 1,013.3 | 256.2 | 9,105.6 | 4.8 | 2,242.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 130.17 | 182.02 | 201.92 | 102.77 | 2.60 | 34.29 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 7.21 | 7.21 | 7.21 | 7.21 | 1.00 | 8.35 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 18.05 | 25.24 | 28.00 | 14.25 | 2.60 | 4.11 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 7.21 | 7.21 | 7.21 | 7.21 | 1.00 | 8.35 | |