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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6,1x - 6,7x | 6,4x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,3x - 5,9x | 5,6x |
Fair Value | €1,34 - €1,53 | €1,44 |
Upside | 20,0% - 37,0% | 28,5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A.B. de C.V. | CHDRAUI B | BMV:CHDRAUIB |
La Comer, S.A.B. de C.V. | LACOMER UBC | BMV:LACOMERUBC |
BBB Foods Inc. | TBBB N | BMV:TBBBN |
Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. | WALMEX * | BMV:WALMEX* |
Costco Wholesale Corporation | COST * | BMV:COST* |
Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V. | OSOB | DB:OSOB |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
CHDRAUI B | LACOMER UBC | TBBB N | WALMEX * | COST * | OSOB | ||
BMV:CHDRAUIB | BMV:LACOMERUBC | BMV:TBBBN | BMV:WALMEX* | BMV:COST* | DB:OSOB | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 20.2% | 18.1% | NM- | 7.1% | 13.1% | 0.3% | |
3Y CAGR | 17.6% | 15.8% | 49.9% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 1.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -11.9% | 13.6% | 29.6% | 5.3% | 10.7% | -4.7% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 6.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 7.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 7.7% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 10.0% | 4.4% | 7.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 7.0% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 6.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.69x | 1.01x | 0.98x | 1.03x | 1.61x | 0.36x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.1x | 9.7x | 29.6x | 10.8x | 34.7x | 5.6x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 13.5x | 13.8x | 47.3x | 13.3x | 42.8x | 7.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.7x | 11.1x | 34.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 6.4x | 7.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 6.4x | 6.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 11,538 | 11,538 | 11,538 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 70,279 | 73,978 | 77,677 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (18,227) | (18,227) | (18,227) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 52,052 | 55,751 | 59,450 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,800.0 | 1,800.0 | 1,800.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 28.92 | 30.97 | 33.03 | ||||
FX Rate: MXN/EUR | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.33 | 1.43 | 1.52 | 1.12 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 19.1% | 27.5% | 36.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | CHDRAUI B | LACOMER UBC | TBBB N | WALMEX * | COST * | OSOB | |
Enterprise Value | 203,286 | 45,802 | 60,947 | 1,020,513 | 434,069 | 61,941 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 9,740 | 3,072 | 4,632 | 32,444 | 14,850 | 7,540 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1,010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,511 | |
(-) Debt | (59,760) | (2,354) | (9,734) | (78,780) | (8,358) | (30,154) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (746) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (124) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 153,531 | 46,520 | 55,844 | 974,176 | 440,561 | 43,714 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 960.8 | 1,097.2 | 114.2 | 17,334.1 | 443.5 | 1,800.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 159.80 | 42.40 | 489.00 | 56.20 | 993.42 | 24.29 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 21.68 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 159.80 | 42.40 | 489.00 | 56.20 | 18,439.15 | 1.12 | |
Trading Currency | MXN | MXN | MXN | MXN | MXN | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 21.68 |