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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2,2x - 2,5x | 2,4x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2,1x - 2,4x | 2,2x |
Fair Value | €12,68 - €14,63 | €13,65 |
Upside | -5,4% - 9,2% | 1,9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
Nippon Koshuha Steel Co.,Ltd. | 5476 | TSE:5476 |
Nippon Kinzoku Co., Ltd. | 5491 | TSE:5491 |
S Science Company, Ltd. | 5721 | TSE:5721 |
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. | 5423 | TSE:5423 |
Toho Zinc Co., Ltd. | 5707 | TSE:5707 |
OSAKA Titanium technologies Co.,Ltd. | S5M | DB:S5M |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
5476 | 5491 | 5721 | 5423 | 5707 | S5M | |||
TSE:5476 | TSE:5491 | TSE:5721 | TSE:5423 | TSE:5707 | DB:S5M | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | -0.3% | 2.6% | NM- | 12.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | ||
3Y CAGR | -4.1% | 1.5% | 12.6% | 6.5% | 0.5% | 22.1% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 4.3% | -2.8% | -24.2% | -14.4% | -12.0% | -3.9% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | -1.6% | -0.6% | -17.7% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | -4.5% | -2.1% | -8.6% | 10.4% | -0.5% | 15.0% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | -2.1% | -0.4% | -18.1% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 19.4% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | -0.8% | 0.2% | -26.8% | 8.2% | 1.3% | 14.9% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.33x | 0.22x | 28.05x | 0.22x | 0.59x | 2.42x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | -41.5x | 101.5x | -104.5x | 2.6x | 45.2x | 16.2x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 0.18x | 0.11x | 29.78x | 0.51x | 0.08x | 1.69x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.22x | 0.33x | 28.05x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.97x | 3.05x | 3.80x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.24x | 2.36x | 2.48x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 51,554 | 51,554 | 51,554 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 115,679 | 121,768 | 127,856 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (37,493) | (37,493) | (37,493) | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 78,186 | 84,275 | 90,363 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 36.8 | 36.8 | 36.8 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 2,124.72 | 2,290.17 | 2,455.62 | |||||
FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 174.0 | 174.0 | 174.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.21 | 13.16 | 14.11 | 13.40 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | -8.9% | -1.8% | 5.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 5476 | 5491 | 5721 | 5423 | 5707 | S5M | |
Enterprise Value | 12,243 | 11,244 | 33,168 | 65,907 | 69,228 | 123,300 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 297 | 12,487 | 2,149 | 90,437 | 10,219 | 4,453 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1,878 | 2,950 | 81 | 0 | 2,878 | 3,054 | |
(-) Debt | (7,868) | (21,125) | 0 | 0 | (73,337) | (45,000) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 6,550 | 5,556 | 35,398 | 156,344 | 8,988 | 85,807 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 14.7 | 6.7 | 141.6 | 102.5 | 13.6 | 36.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 447.00 | 830.00 | 250.00 | 1,525.00 | 662.00 | 2,331.81 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 174.02 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 447.00 | 830.00 | 250.00 | 1,525.00 | 662.00 | 13.40 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 174.02 |