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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7,0x - 7,7x | 7,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6,2x - 6,8x | 6,5x |
| Fair Value | Rp1.310 - Rp1.510 | Rp1.410 |
| Upside | -11,5% - 2,0% | -4,7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk | ULTJ | IDX:ULTJ |
| PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk | AALI | IDX:AALI |
| PT Sumber Tani Agung Resources Tbk | STAA | IDX:STAA |
| PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk | JPFA | IDX:JPFA |
| Indofood Agri Resources Ltd. | 5JS | SGX:5JS |
| PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk. | SSMS | IDX:SSMS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ULTJ | AALI | STAA | JPFA | 5JS | SSMS | ||
| IDX:ULTJ | IDX:AALI | IDX:STAA | IDX:JPFA | SGX:5JS | IDX:SSMS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 1.6% | 4.1% | 26.4% | 8.6% | 20.1% | 29.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -4.1% | -9.5% | 3.9% | 12.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -13.2% | 6.9% | 51.9% | 11.1% | 54.6% | 37.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 21.4% | 15.9% | 31.3% | 9.0% | 24.8% | 29.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 19.8% | 14.5% | 25.9% | 6.3% | 22.2% | 14.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 17.7% | 14.7% | 34.6% | 11.1% | 32.9% | 21.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.9% | 13.3% | 34.9% | 10.4% | 32.4% | 20.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.31x | 0.44x | 1.69x | 0.55x | 0.93x | 1.69x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.7x | 3.3x | 4.8x | 5.3x | 2.9x | 8.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.6x | 5.7x | 5.6x | 6.6x | 3.8x | 10.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 4.8x | 7.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.9x | 8.3x | 12.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.0x | 7.4x | 7.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 2,344,429 | 2,344,429 | 2,344,429 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 16,370,399 | 17,231,999 | 18,093,599 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (5,610,600) | (5,610,600) | (5,610,600) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 10,759,799 | 11,621,399 | 12,482,999 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 9,525.0 | 9,525.0 | 9,525.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,129.64 | 1,220.09 | 1,310.55 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,129.64 | 1,220.09 | 1,310.55 | 1,480.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -23.7% | -17.6% | -11.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ULTJ | AALI | STAA | JPFA | 5JS | SSMS | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,147,993 | 11,400,892 | 12,368,444 | 30,322,938 | 17,007,272 | 19,707,600 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,085,385 | 6,324,684 | 999,702 | 1,737,720 | 7,324,371 | 1,280,408 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 154,329 | 362,927 | 18,686 | 283,281 | 2,216,072 | 540,197 | |
| (-) Debt | (32,510) | (3,189,879) | (1,571,745) | (12,044,042) | (8,411,357) | (7,149,402) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (97,524) | (559,696) | (421,063) | (1,172,380) | (11,729,863) | (281,803) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 13,257,673 | 14,338,928 | 11,394,024 | 19,127,517 | 6,406,495 | 14,097,000 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 10,398.2 | 1,924.7 | 10,903.4 | 11,627.7 | 1,395.9 | 9,525.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,275.00 | 7,450.00 | 1,045.00 | 1,645.00 | 4,589.49 | 1,480.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 12,748.59 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,275.00 | 7,450.00 | 1,045.00 | 1,645.00 | 0.36 | 1,480.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | SGD | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 12,748.59 | 1.00 | |