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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 14,9x - 16,5x | 15,7x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11,0x - 12,1x | 11,5x |
Fair Value | ¥92,57 - ¥103,98 | ¥98,28 |
Upside | 3,6% - 16,3% | 9,9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited | 1347 | SEHK:1347 |
GlobalFoundries Inc. | GFS | NasdaqGS:GFS |
X-FAB Silicon Foundries SE | XFAB | ENXTPA:XFAB |
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | AMD_KZEUSW | KAS:AMD_KZEUSW |
Nexchip Semiconductor Corporation | 688249 | SHSE:688249 |
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation | 688981 | XSSC:688981 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
1347 | GFS | XFAB | AMD_KZEUSW | 688249 | 688981 | ||
SEHK:1347 | NasdaqGS:GFS | ENXTPA:XFAB | KAS:AMD_KZEUSW | SHSE:688249 | XSSC:688981 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 11.2% | 14.7% | 42.6% | 43.3% | NM- | 37.7% | |
3Y CAGR | -11.2% | 14.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 11.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -11.0% | -11.6% | -24.4% | 53.2% | 6.0% | 41.0% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 27.7% | 29.5% | 20.4% | 19.6% | 44.9% | 42.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 28.0% | 35.0% | 26.8% | 17.0% | 45.1% | 43.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 19.2% | 32.9% | 22.1% | 20.0% | 42.0% | 43.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 20.4% | 32.2% | 22.2% | 21.2% | 41.7% | 45.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 4.57x | 2.98x | 1.62x | 8.95x | 6.46x | 8.27x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.4x | 9.3x | 7.3x | 42.2x | 15.5x | 18.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -61.9x | 27.7x | 17.2x | 86.9x | 84.3x | 118.9x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.3x | 15.5x | 42.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 12.9x | 19.5x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.9x | 15.7x | 16.5x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 3,895 | 3,895 | 3,895 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 58,115 | 61,173 | 64,232 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8,619) | (8,619) | (8,619) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 49,496 | 52,555 | 55,613 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 3,884.6 | 3,884.6 | 3,884.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 12.74 | 13.53 | 14.32 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/CNY | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 91.12 | 96.75 | 102.39 | 89.39 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 1.9% | 8.2% | 14.5% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 1347 | GFS | XFAB | AMD_KZEUSW | 688249 | 688981 | |
Enterprise Value | 10,876 | 20,253 | 1,271 | 253,525 | 61,931 | 57,173 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,080 | 2,877 | 157 | 7,310 | 4,268 | 8,537 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 430 | 820 | 0 | 807 | 1,136 | 5,489 | |
(-) Debt | (2,301) | (1,631) | (426) | (4,731) | (18,696) | (11,255) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (2,607) | (50) | 0 | 0 | (5,169) | (11,390) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 10,478 | 22,269 | 1,002 | 256,911 | 43,469 | 48,555 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,253.3 | 554.9 | 130.6 | 1,621.4 | 1,944.0 | 3,884.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 4.65 | 40.13 | 7.67 | 158.45 | 22.36 | 12.50 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.13 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.14 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 36.50 | 40.13 | 6.52 | 158.45 | 22.36 | 89.39 | |
Trading Currency | HKD | USD | EUR | USD | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.13 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.14 |